# 📉📈 Market commentary for Monday October 26, 2026

By Brian Cavanaugh (@briancavanaugh) · Published 2026-10-26

Canonical: https://voce.com/@briancavanaugh/market-commentary-monday-october-2026-foitph

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Recap:

Friday saw bonds end the week giving back a little of Thursday’s gains. However, by the end of the day, mortgage bonds were basically unchanged from where they were when Friday morning’s rate sheets came out. Despite some choppy trading, there was never much risk of reprices for the worse.

Rate outlook for today...

Rate sheets this morning should be about the same as Friday’s, with mortgage bonds starting the day up just a few basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield is managing to stay below 5.00% after testing that level on Friday.

Last week’s big sell-off in AI stocks helped rate sheets improve, but those stocks are basically moving sideways to start this week. If we see a rally in AI stocks, it could hurt bonds. Meanwhile, oil prices remain near six-month highs, and I think it’s only a matter of time before that pressure shows up in rate sheets again, possibly right after the midterms.

For today, we can cautiously float to start, but I’d keep a finger on the lock button for most loans.