If you held off on buying a home in 2022 hoping mortgage rates would fall, the cost of that patience is now measured in six figures of forgone equity. Home prices did not wait for rates to come down — the national median existing-home price has climbed from $399,200 in 2022 to about $417,700 today (US Property Stats), and in high-demand California coastal markets like San Diego, the run-up has been far steeper. The math of waiting has quietly turned against the sidelines, and it has nothing to do with the interest rate on the loan you never took out.
How the math of waiting has flipped since 2022
The common instinct in 2022 was to wait for rates to fall before committing to a purchase. But that logic rests on a mistake: mortgage rates affect your monthly payment, while home prices determine the equity you build — and prices have kept climbing. The national median existing-home price went from $399,200 in 2022 to $417,700 by April 2026, a steady grind upward even as the market cooled (US Property Stats). Waiting did not reset the entry price; it raised it.
The gap compounds because equity is a function of price appreciation on the full value of the home, while the avoided rate only changed what you pay each month. A buyer who purchased at the 2022 median price captured four years of appreciation; a buyer who waited purchased the same type of home at a higher entry point and started from behind. In dollar terms, the difference is the appreciation on a purchase price of several hundred thousand dollars — far larger than the interest saved on a loan you never took.
What waiting has cost in a California coastal market
Run the 2022-versus-now comparison on a median-priced Carlsbad home. If you bought at roughly $1.0–1.1 million in 2022 and the home now appraises near the mid-$1.3 million to $1.59 million range, the appreciation on that single purchase is $250,000 to $500,000 in equity — money that has accrued to owners who bought, not to renters who waited. That sum dwarfs any interest savings on a mortgage you never signed. As a branch manager who has worked with buyers through this cycle for 18 years, I can tell you the buyers who regret waiting are not worried about their rate; they are watching equity they could have had appreciate in someone else's portfolio.
What waiting has cost in a California coastal market
Run the 2022-versus-now comparison on a median-priced Carlsbad home. If you bought in 2022 and the home has since appreciated from the roughly $1.0–1.1 million range to the current mid-$1.3 million to $1.59 million market, the equity on that single purchase is $250,000 to $500,000 — money that has accrued to owners who bought, not to renters who waited. That sum dwarfs any interest savings on a mortgage you never signed. As a branch manager who has worked with buyers through this cycle for 18 years, I can tell you the buyers who regret waiting are not worried about their rate; they are watching equity they could have had appreciate in someone else's portfolio.
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