# If the Refinance Never Comes, Does Your Plan Still Work? By Josh Velazquez (@joshvelazquez) ยท Published 2026-10-17 Canonical: https://voce.com/@joshvelazquez/refinance-never-comes-plan-still-work-028vah --- I've been in the mortgage business since 1998, and one thing I've learned is that nobody has a crystal ball. Not the Federal Reserve, not the economists on CNBC, certainly not the guys on social media confidently predicting 4% or 10% mortgage rates next year, or a 2008 style home price crash! ๐Ÿ˜‚ Yet I regularly hear buyers and homeowners making major financial decisions based on what they _think_ mortgage rates will do next. I'm okay with this payment for now. I'll just refinance when rates come down. And maybe they will! I certainly hope we see lower mortgage rates in the future. But here's the question I think more people should be asking: **What if that refinance doesn't happen? Does your financial plan still work?** ### A Refinance Should Be an Opportunity, Not a Requirement There's nothing wrong with buying a home today and hoping to refinance into a lower rate later. In fact, that can be a perfectly reasonable strategy. But there's a big difference between buying a home with a payment you can comfortably afford today and buying one with a payment that's stretching your finances because you're counting on relief in the future. Mortgage rates could fall next year. Or they could remain elevated for several more years. And even if rates do fall, refinancing isn't guaranteed. Your home's value, your credit, your income, your equity and the cost of refinancing will all matter when that opportunity arrives. **A future refinance should make a good financial plan better. It shouldn't be the thing that makes a bad plan work.** ### Not All Mortgage Strategies Are Created Equal This is especially important when evaluating temporary interest rate buydowns and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). A temporary buydown can be a great tool for reducing your initial payments, particularly when a seller is willing to contribute toward the cost. But when the buydown expires, your payment increases to the full contractual amount. Similarly, an ARM can offer meaningful savings compared with a fixed-rate mortgage. Some of the 7-year ARMs I'm working with right now have particularly attractive pricing. But the initial fixed period eventually ends, and the interest rate can adjust based on the loan's terms and market conditions. Neither product is inherently good or bad. The question is whether it makes sense for **your** financial situation, goals and tolerance for risk. For example, if you're considering a 7-year ARM, we should understand what happens if you still own the home when the rate begins adjusting. What are the adjustment caps? What could the payment become? Would you still be financially comfortable? That's planning. Not predicting. ### The Best Mortgage Plan Doesn't Require You to Be Right About the Future When I work with buyers, I want to look beyond the interest rate and monthly payment. How much money will you have left after closing? What other debts are you carrying? How long do you realistically expect to own the home? What happens if rates stay where they are, or even move higher? Sometimes a permanent rate buydown makes more sense. Sometimes a temporary buydown or ARM creates a great opportunity. And sometimes the smartest decision is to buy less house, save more money, or wait until your financial picture improves. I don't believe every buyer should buy right now. I believe every buyer deserves to understand their options well enough to make a confident, informed decision. **The goal isn't to predict the perfect market. It's to build a financial plan that can survive an imperfect one.** ### Let's Stress-Test Your Plan If you're thinking about buying a home, or you're considering refinancing an existing one, let's run the numbers together. We'll compare a few different options, look at what happens if rates fall, stay flat or rise, and build a strategy around what you can actually control. No pressure. No crystal ball. Just real numbers and a thoughtful plan. **Reply to this email and let's build a mortgage strategy that works even if the predictions don't.** ### Marriage Minute: Don't Make Your Spouse Your Shock Absorber Work pressure has a funny way of following us home, often disguised as impatience, irritability, or a short temper. We spend all day managing problems, serving clients, leading people, and putting out fires. Then we walk through the front door and sometimes give the person we love most the worst version of ourselves. I've learned that one of the simplest things we can do is recognize when we're carrying that stress and communicate it BEFORE it spills over onto our spouse. Sometimes it's as simple as saying, I've had a really tough day and I'm feeling discouraged. I need a few minutes to reset, but I want you to know this has nothing to do with you. And then actually take those few minutes to reset and come back ready to connect. Our spouses shouldn't have to guess why we're distant or absorb frustration they didn't create. **Being stressed isn't always a choice. How we treat the people we love while we're stressed is something we can work on.** A little self-awareness and honest communication can prevent a whole lot of unnecessary hurt and disconnection.