You've heard the headline: the Phoenix market peaked in 2022. For the category most people mean when they say "Phoenix real estate" — single-family detached homes — that's roughly true. But it's misleading for nearly every other home type in the Valley, and the gap between them matters far more to your decision than any metro-wide average.
The Cromford Report, which tracks Greater Phoenix resale by dwelling type, published its July 2026 monthly figures on August 5. Single-family detached homes are down 9.87% from their May 2022 peak of $280.71 per square foot, now sitting at $253.00. Apartment-style units fell 22.61% from their June 2022 high. Townhouses dropped 13.16%. And two types — patio homes and manufactured housing — didn't even top out until May and April of 2024, respectively.
I'm a mortgage lender, not a realtor, and I read this chart for price, payment, and loan type together. Because the dwelling type changes all three, the home you pick matters more than a single metro headline. Here's the full July 2026 snapshot from Cromford's Greater Phoenix resale data:
Dwelling type | Peak month | Peak median $/sf | July 2026 $/sf | % off peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Single-family detached | May 2022 | $280.71 | $253.00 | −9.87% |
Townhouse | May 2022 | $295.20 | $256.35 | −13.16% |
Apartment-style | June 2022 | $337.91 | $261.52 | −22.61% |
Gemini / twin home | Sept 2022 | $221.52 | $175.63 | −20.72% |
Manufactured / mobile | April 2024 | $181.94 | $148.14 | −18.58% |
Patio home | May 2024 | $322.15 | $268.36 | −16.70% |
\nLoft and modular were excluded. Their monthly closings are too few for a reliable median.
Why single-family detached still sets the tone
The correction shows up most clearly in the median. The current Phoenix metro median sale price sits around $450,000 (ARMLS video commentary) and roughly $30,000 below the $480,000 median peak set in May 2022 (Cromford commentary). Averages tell a different story: with strong luxury sales skewing the mean upward, an average that keeps rising makes for a misleading national headline that doesn't reflect the typical Valley transaction.
The patio home exception
Patio homes break the "everyone peaked in 2022" story cleanly. They kept climbing for two more years, topping out in May 2024 at $322.15 per square foot, and are now at $268.36 — down 16.70% from that actual peak but only 8.42% versus May 2022. In plain terms: if you priced a patio home against the 2022 chart, you'd vastly overstate how far it has fallen, because it never stopped rising until 2024.
That distinction is what trips up both sellers and buyers. A seller pricing patio-home equity off the May 2022 baseline looks at an 8% dip and holds firm, when the real move against the true peak is closer to 17%. A buyer watching only the 2022 headline sees a bigger discount than the market actually offers. Manufactured and mobile homes followed the same delayed curve, peaking in April 2024 before slipping 18.58% — proof the 2022 cutoff simply doesn't apply to every Valley home type.
The apartment-style correction
Stacked, condo-style apartment buildings took the hardest hit of any category: down 22.61% from their June 2022 peak of $337.91 per square foot to $261.52 in July 2026. Townhouses sit in the middle at minus 13.16%. If you're shopping a high-rise or mid-rise condo, your number is not the number of the detached house two streets over — and that gap is exactly why the metro average can mislead.
From a lender's seat, this isn't just price. A stacked unit underwriting runs through HOA scrutiny, condo-project approval, and a different appraisal pool than a detached home in the same zip code (ARMLS notes the market remains sensitive to price across the board). Two properties priced identically on paper can sit in completely different payment and qualification territory once the project file is reviewed. For a buyer, that means the "peak" baked into an apartment-style number is the deepest discount on this table — but the file behind it is also the most conditional.
What the tape means if you're transacting
Maricopa County recorded a slow July. Listings are spending more time on market — median days on market reached 84 to 85 days by early August, with new apartments and resale homes alike facing extended marketing periods (ARMLS, Valley Wide Agents). Sellers have responded by adjusting price and, in about 55% of closings, paying buyer closing costs (Cromford commentary). This is a cooler tape, not a crash — Cromford's own August forecast describes the market as "quiet and seasonally subdued rather than one under stress" and expects prices to soften through early fall before recovering in October (Unbiased Options, Maricopa market stats).
Rates for well-qualified buyers have been hanging in the mid-6s to just under 7%, depending on the hour (ARMLS). I shop a large panel of lenders, so the quote is a snapshot, not a slogan — and payment still does as much work as price in this market.
Bottom line: use the right peak, then run the payment
Phoenix is not one market. Single-family detached has held up far better than apartment-style units, townhouses land in the middle, and patio and manufactured homes peaked years later than the 2022 headline suggests. The dwelling type you pick changes the payment, the loan file, and how much "peak" is already baked into the number.
If you're buying, use the peak that matches the home in front of you, then ask what the actual monthly payment is at today's rate. If you're selling, the same table tells you which comparable set to trust. If you're staying put and weighing equity, a cash-out refinance or HELOC only makes sense when the payment and your payoff plan fit. I can run that math either way — on a specific property or on your current equity position.
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