# Sherman TX Real Estate Forecast for Q4 2026 By Mike Harrison (@mikeharrison) · Published 2026-09-08 · Updated 2026-09-08 Canonical: https://voce.com/@mikeharrison/sherman-real-estate-forecast-2026-gaxpyj --- Sherman's housing market enters the fourth quarter of 2026 caught between two forces: a semiconductor boom that has pushed Grayson County into one of Texas's most-watched growth corridors, and a seasonal slowdown that, combined with elevated inventory and listing prices down from a year ago, tilts the market toward buyers. For the roughly **964 homes** currently listed in Sherman, the next three months look like a window of divided leverage — more supply, softer asking prices, and long-term industrial demand waiting underneath. Buyers and sellers face different timing math in this Q4. Sellers see a healthier result than the state average — Sherman's median sale price is [**up about 4.2% year-over-year**](https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Sherman_TX/overview) while the median _listing_ price has fallen, a sign asking prices are correcting toward what buyers will actually pay. Buyers, meanwhile, benefit from 73 days on market and room to negotiate that did not exist during the pandemic boom. Both sides should read this forecast before the holidays compress the calendar. #### Key Takeaways - Sherman's median sale price is up about 4.2% YOY even as listing prices cool — a buyer-leaning correction - Semiconductor employers (TI, GlobalWafers, Coherent, NVIDIA) keep long-term demand intact - Inventory near 964 active listings gives buyers more leverage this autumn - 73 days on market makes competitive pricing the winning seller strategy - Mortgage rates near 6.7% keep affordability the key constraint through December $276,189Sherman median sale price, August 2026 (up ~4.2% YOY)[Realtor.com](https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Sherman_TX/overview) ## What the August numbers say about Sherman The numbers tell a buyer-seller tug of war. Active listings in Sherman are near **964 homes**, and the median home stays on the market **73 days**, per the Realtor.com Sherman market overview. More inventory, slower turnover, and discounting are the classic anatomy of a buyer's market — according to the [Realtor.com data](https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Sherman_TX/overview), properties are selling for slightly below asking price. Yet the sold price still climbing means the correction is happening at the asking level, not at the closing table. For sellers, the lesson is pricing discipline: the homes moving fastest in this Q4 will be the ones priced to match the buyer's leverage, not a 2024 or early-2025 comp. Buyers who expect dramatic distress should look elsewhere — Sherman's floor is higher than the seasonal slowdown suggests because the industrial job base keeps underwriting demand. ## The semiconductor economy underneath Sherman The industrial engine under the market is still running hot. Texas Instruments said its Sherman site carries a potential **$40 billion** investment with plans for up to four connected manufacturing facilities and **3,000 TI jobs** as part of the site plan, according to the [Cooke County Record](https://cookecountyrecord.com/articles/sherman-semiconductor-coherent-globalwafers-regional-impact). The first TI fab at Sherman (site SM1) was already flagged as **operating** as of December 2025 in the [Axis Intelligence fab tracker](https://axis-intelligence.com/semiconductor-fab-investment-tracker). GlobalWafers' silicon wafer facility adds a [**1 billion dollar, 1.33 million-square-foot**](https://cookecountyrecord.com/articles/sherman-semiconductor-coherent-globalwafers-regional-impact) plant, and two Coherent Corp. projects — a $16.2 million logistics addition and a $7.5 million wafering renovation — keep construction active into late 2026. Around them, Coherent and NVIDIA announced expansion work, and state records show the wafer fab's construction permit already closed. All this manufacturing activity does not just add rooftops in the abstract; it creates the buyer traffic — engineers, technicians, suppliers — who underwrite the housing market's long-term floor. For a buyer deciding whether to commit before year-end, the question is not whether Sherman's economy is growing — it is whether that growth shows up in the local sales data fast enough. The nine- to twelve-month lag between a fab hiring wave and home sales is real, and it is why the near-term Q4 picture looks softer than the five-year story. ## What mortgage rates do to Q4 buyer power Financing is the wild card in Sherman this quarter. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered near **6.89%** as of early September 2026, per Mortgage News Daily, with the Freddie Mac survey pegging it at **6.71%** for the first week of September. Both sit modestly above year-ago readings, and that is what keeps affordability the binding constraint on Sherman's demand through December. ## What should buyers and sellers do in Q4? For sellers, Q4 is a prove-it market. With 73 days on market and homes selling below asking, the sellers who win are the ones who set a realistic price at listing rather than chasing comps down later. The statewide picture reinforces that discipline: recent Texas data shows median price cuts around $19,000 — about a 5 percent reduction from original asking — and a sale-to-list ratio of 0.95 amid inventory pressure ([Texas Real Estate Research Center](https://trerc.tamu.edu/reports/texas-housing-insight-october-2025)). A well-priced Sherman home still moves; an overpriced one sits until the spring reset. For buyers, the quarter is a genuine window of divided leverage. Inventory is high, asking prices are softening, and the semiconductor buildout keeps providing the buyer pool that will eventually tighten the market. The strategic play is to make an offer on a home that has lingered past 60 to 70 days on market, where sellers are most motivated, while locking a rate before the holidays. The tradeoff is accepting a rate in the high 6s now versus gambling that the forecasted 2026 easing — the Texas Real Estate Research Center projects 30-year rates will fall to a 5 to 5.6 percent range by December ([2026 Texas Real Estate Forecast](https://trerc.tamu.edu/reports/2026-texas-real-estate-forecast)) — materializes in time for spring. ## The bottom line for Q4 2026 Sherman enters Q4 as a buyer-leaning market with a seller-friendly trajectory underneath it. Prices have stopped free-falling even as inventory stays elevated, the semiconductor corridor keeps feeding the housing pipeline, and mortgage rates — stubbornly in the high 6s — are the one lever that could tip the balance either way. For most people in Sherman, the decision is not whether to transact this quarter but whether the autumn discounts justify locking in now against a stronger, costlier spring. ![TI fab construction cranes over the Sherman corridor](https://convex.voce.com/api/storage/4d80b754-e939-4909-adb2-3b6793536685)