# Do Midterm Elections Move Mortgage Rates?

By Thierry Abel (@thierryabel) · Published 2026-08-07

Canonical: https://voce.com/@thierryabel/midterm-elections-move-mortgage-rates-ytnz5t

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**The Question Every Election Season**

Every midterm season, a buyer asks me whether to hold off locking a rate until after the votes are counted. After 23 years and ten midterm cycles, my answer has not changed: the election does not move mortgage rates — the Federal Reserve, inflation, and the mortgage-backed securities market do. Political headlines are loud the weeks before an election, and it's natural to wonder whether that noise makes this a better or worse moment to lock in. The data says otherwise, and here's the case.

## How a mortgage rate is actually built

The 30-year fixed rate quoted to a borrower is not set directly by the Fed. It is built from two components: the **10-Year Treasury yield**, the benchmark for long-duration debt, plus the **MBS spread** — the extra yield investors demand to hold mortgage-backed securities instead of Treasuries. That spread reflects prepayment risk, market liquidity, and, especially since 2022, how aggressively the Fed is buying or shedding MBS from its balance sheet. The weekly 30-year fixed rate has been published continuously since 1971 by Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey ([PMMS](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms)).

Because these two pieces can move independently, mortgage rates don't always track the 10-Year Treasury one-for-one — which is exactly what the last ten midterm cycles show. When you see a headline about rates moving around an election, the trigger is usually an inflation print, an FOMC decision, or a shift in the MBS market happening in the same news cycle by coincidence of the calendar.

## Ten election cycles, one consistent finding

Looking at the **30-year fixed rate from August 1 through November 30** in every midterm year since 1986, rates actually fell in 6 of the 10 cycles and rose in 4 (2022, 2018, 1994, and 1990). The average net move across all ten cycles was roughly **+4 basis points** — essentially flat — but that average hides some very different stories from cycle to cycle ([FRED series MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US)).

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)

Figure 1: Change in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, August 1 → November 30, each midterm year 1986–2022. Source: [Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US).

Midterm year

Net change in 30-year fixed rate (Aug 1 → Nov 30)

What drove it

2022

**+150 bps** (largest rise on record)

Fed's fastest hiking cycle in four decades plus MBS portfolio runoff widened the spread

2018

Modest rise

Repricing of tightening cycle

1994

**+85 bps**

"Great Bond Massacre" — rapid fed funds doubling and prepayment-risk repricing

1990

Modest rise

Oil-price shock fallout

1986

**−90 bps** (largest decline)

Collapsing oil prices pulled inflation and rates down

2010

−8 bps (spread −67 bps)

Fed QE MBS purchases compressed the spread

2014

Modest fall

Steady-footing Fed, low inflation

2006

Fall

Cooling housing market

2002

Fall

Easing cycle aftermath

1998

Fall

Flight-to-quality after LTCM/Russia

Source: [Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US).

## What actually moved rates in the biggest swing years

**2022: +150 bps, the largest move on record.** Treasury yields rose 72 bps as the Fed ran its fastest hiking cycle in four decades, yet mortgage rates rose more than double that. The gap is the MBS spread — the Fed was simultaneously letting its roughly $2.7 trillion MBS portfolio run off, removing a steady buyer from the market and widening the spread on top of already-higher Treasury yields ([FRED MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US)).

**1986: −90 bps, the largest decline.** Collapsing oil prices pulled inflation and rates down broadly, and the mortgage market rallied on the renewed disinflation ([FRED MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US)).

**1994: +85 bps.** Remembered as the Great Bond Massacre, the Greenspan Fed roughly doubled the fed funds rate over the year, and mortgage rates outran even that sharp Treasury sell-off as the market repriced prepayment risk ([FRED MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US)).

**2010: −8 bps, sharpest MBS spread narrowing at −67 bps.** The Fed's post-crisis MBS purchase programs (early quantitative easing) directly compressed the spread by adding a large, price-insensitive buyer — the opposite effect of what happened in 2022 ([FRED MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US)).

## Why elections don't move the needle

Compare rate direction with House and Senate seat outcomes across these same ten cycles and no dependable pattern emerges. Rates rose in 2022, 2010, and 1994 — three cycles with very different election outcomes, from modest Democratic losses (2022) to historic wave losses (2010, 1994). Rates fell in 2018, 2014, 2006, 2002, 1998, 1990, and 1986 — a group that includes both a 40-seat House loss (2018) and rare seat gains for the president's party (1998, 2002). If elections drove rates, these groupings would look far more consistent than they do.

The reason is structural. The president's party has lost House seats in 8 of the last 10 midterms, largely independent of financial conditions — turnout and approval ratings drive that outcome far more than bond yields do ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election)). Meanwhile, Treasury yields and mortgage rates in the August–November window are set by FOMC decisions, inflation prints, labor data, and MBS market conditions. The Fed's late-October or early-November meeting happens to fall right around Election Day almost every cycle, so election news and rate news land in the same headline cycle by coincidence of the calendar — not because one causes the other.

## What this means for buyers right now

Waiting for an election result before locking a rate has no historical basis — six of the last ten cycles rewarded buyers who didn't wait ([FRED MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MORTGAGE30US)). The Fed's rate path, inflation data, and how the MBS market is pricing risk are the levers that actually move rates.

My job through this window is to help you read those levers rather than the ballot. When inflation prints come in hotter or cooler than expected, when the Fed raises, holds, or cuts, and when the MBS market widens or compresses the spread — those are the signals that tell us whether locking now beats waiting. If you're weighing a decision between now and the late fall, bring me your precise timeline and target loan, and we'll run the numbers against the rates available and the data points due out before your closing. That conversation decides your rate — not the election result.

This article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice, nor is it a commitment to lend or an offer to extend credit. Rates, terms, and program availability are subject to change without notice and are not guaranteed until locked with a signed rate-lock agreement. Historical yield and rate figures reflect the closest available published reading to August 1 and November 30 of each year (10-Year Treasury: Federal Reserve H.15 release via FRED; 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® via FRED series MORTGAGE30US) and are approximations, not exact closing values. Past performance and historical rate behavior are not indicative of future results.

Thierry Abel, NMLS #304353, is a Senior Residential Loan Advisor with Preferred Mortgage Partners. Preferred Mortgage Partners is an Equal Housing Opportunity lender. This is not an offer of credit or a guarantee of loan approval or specific terms. All loans are subject to credit approval, income and asset verification, and property appraisal. Consult a licensed tax or financial advisor regarding your individual circumstances before making a home financing decision.
