# Mortgage Rates Near 7%: What's Driving Them Higher

By TJ Kuczewski (@tjkuczewski) · Published 2026-09-16

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The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged **6.76%** this week, the highest level in 15 months, and the Fed is widely expected to add to the pressure. Rising 10-year Treasury yields, renewed inflation fears, and climbing oil prices pushed the benchmark rate up five basis points from last week and **41 basis points** above where it sat a year ago — and a rate hike decision looms this week ([Freddie Mac](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-676)).

#### Key Takeaways

-   The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.76% as of Sept. 10, 2026 — up from 6.71% the prior week and 6.35% a year ago.
-   The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise short-term rates at its Sept. 16 FOMC meeting, with CME FedWatch odds near 93%.
-   Rising 10-year Treasury yields and inflation fears are the main forces pushing mortgage rates higher.
-   Buyers are increasingly turning to adjustable-rate mortgages to lower their initial payments while waiting for rates to fall.

## What is the Federal Reserve doing this week?

**A short-term rate hike is widely expected at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting**, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool putting the odds of an increase at **92.7%** ([RealEstateNews](https://www.realestatenews.com/2026/09/14/investors-not-the-fed-may-influence-where-mortgage-rates-go-next)).

The catch is that the Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. Mortgage rates track the **10-year Treasury yield**, which has spiked as investors price in a tightening cycle. "With much of that adjustment already underway, the bigger question is what the Fed signals about the path ahead," said Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American ([RealEstateNews](https://www.realestatenews.com/2026/09/14/investors-not-the-fed-may-influence-where-mortgage-rates-go-next)).

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who took over in May, has said he believes markets perform best when they react to incoming data rather than the Fed's forward guidance. That shift means investors may be reading the policy statement and press conference more closely than the decision itself ([RealEstateNews](https://www.realestatenews.com/2026/09/14/investors-not-the-fed-may-influence-where-mortgage-rates-go-next)).