📉📈 Market commentary for Thursday October 1, 2026.
Recap:
Yesterday, I expressed some hope that we could be seeing a floor forming for mortgage bonds and a ceiling for the 10-year Treasury yield that would help rates find a cap. After 10 am Eastern yesterday, it became apparent that that hope was false. Bonds continued to lose ground from about 10 am until just after lunchtime, with only the slightest bit of rebound through the afternoon. Bonds broke through the technical support that was forming, and many lenders repriced worse
Rate outlook for today...
Rate sheets this morning should be similar to yesterday afternoon's reprices worse, and will be worse than yesterday's AM rate sheets. Reprice risk on the day today is high, we could see more selling.
Bonds are struggling this morning, and the 10-year Treasury has officially hit the highest level in over 20 years, despite oil prices falling and markets writing off an October Fed rate hike. Weekly jobless claims were low once again, pointing to a still strong labor market, and today's ISM data came in hot, pointing to a solid economy.
There's simply nothing here to point to bonds improving today or anytime soon.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!