If you're waiting for the perfect moment to buy, the market just handed you one — even though the headlines don't say so. Mortgage rates have climbed back above 7%, which is scaring off buyers and pushing foot traffic down 20% from a year ago (NAR). Fewer shoppers competing means sellers are suddenly willing to negotiate. That's the opening that only shows up a few months a year, and it's wide open right now.
For 11 years I've helped buyers in the High Desert/Inland Empire area through every kind of market — hot ones where you had to waive inspections to win, and slower ones like this, where patience pays. Here's what I keep telling hesitant buyers this season: waiting for rates to drop usually costs more than the rate itself. Home prices don't stand still while you wait, and the leverage you gain by buying now is real money.
Why this season gives you the most leverage
Here's the reality in late 2026 that most headlines are getting wrong: the market has shifted from limited supply to limited demand. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun told reporters that low sales activity is now clearly driven by a lack of demand rather than a shortage of homes, and that higher mortgage rates are reducing foot traffic (NAR).
That shift is exactly why this is the moment to buy. NAR's own data shows housing inventories are back up to pre-pandemic levels while lockbox visits to homes for sale were down 20% in September from a year earlier (NAR). More homes to choose from, far fewer shoppers competing for them — that's the classic setup for negotiating leverage.
I've watched this pattern repeat for over a decade. In a hot spring market, sellers hold firm and buyers waive contingencies just to compete. In a slower season like this one, sellers who've had their home sit for 45 or 60 days get realistic — and they start making concessions on price, closing costs, and repairs to get the deal done.
The real cost of waiting for rates to drop
The math of "waiting for a better rate" rarely works out in the buyer's favor, because home prices don't hold still while you wait. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun told NAR News that waiting could cost buyers more than the rate drop saves, with agents reporting buyers who delay end up paying more as prices climb and competition returns (NAR).
Here's a concrete example to show why. NAR's research found that a 1% drop in mortgage rates could add about 5.5 million households, including 1.6 million renters, to the pool of potential buyers (NAR). The moment rates ease, that wave of sidelined buyers rushes back in — and the negotiating leverage you have today disappears.
On a $500,000 home with a 30-year mortgage at 7% and a 10% down payment, NAR notes the monthly payment runs about $3,895. A drop to 6.25% lowers that to roughly $3,672 — a $223 monthly difference (NAR). Now weigh that against a price you negotiate thousands of dollars lower today, or a seller who covers your closing costs — that concession is worth far more than the rate you're waiting for.
And you don't have to choose. A common move for buyers in exactly this situation is to buy at today's rate and refinance later when rates ease — you keep the leverage now and capture the lower payment when it arrives.
Year-end perks: taxes and motivated sellers
Closing before December 31 adds two more advantages. On the tax side, mortgage interest you pay through the end of the year counts against your current year's federal return — so buying in Q4 means you may claim the mortgage interest deduction on next year's taxes a full year sooner, plus property taxes and points paid at closing (NerdWallet).
The second advantage is seller psychology. Sellers who've watched their home sit on the market through the fall are far more willing to negotiate on price, closing costs, and repairs to get the deal closed before year-end. I've seen sellers throw in appliance packages, credit toward rate buy-downs, and cover inspection repair bills just to close the books on 2026. That's leverage you will not have in the spring.
The move for fence-sitters: buy now, refinance later
The strongest argument for buying now isn't the rate you get — it's the position you're in. Right now, with inventory back to pre-pandemic levels and foot traffic down sharply, you're negotiating with a seller who needs to close more than you need to buy. That combination is rare, and it doesn't last.
Buy the home at today's terms while you hold the leverage, then refinance when rates ease. The National Association of REALTORS projects that a 1% rate drop could bring about 5.5 million additional households back into the buying pool (NAR) — and with them, the competition and the negotiation power you have today. If you're ready to buy, this is the window. Let's talk about what your purchase looks like this season.
My job is to turn this season's leverage into your bottom line. That starts with finding the sellers who are most willing to move — the listings that have sat 30, 45, or 60 days and are now past the point of holding firm. I pull the showing data, I read the price cuts, and I know which sellers are facing a real deadline. Then I put that to work in the negotiation: pressing for a lower price where the comps justify it, getting the seller to cover repairs and closing costs, and structuring year-end credits that put money back in your pocket.
If this is the window you've been waiting for, let's make the move together. I'm Linda Pope, Broker Associate with Realty One Group Empire, serving buyers across Victorville, the High Desert, and the Inland Empire. Reach out today, and I'll show you exactly how this season's leverage plays out in your numbers.
Why an advocate matters this season
Leverage only works if someone knows how to use it. That's the job I take on for every buyer I represent — I've spent 11 years negotiating in the High Desert and Inland Empire, from Victorville and Fontana to the surrounding communities, and as a strong agent, I convert a slow market into a better deal for you (NAR).
What to do this week if you're ready to buy
If the leverage argument lands, don't let it expire. Four moves this week put you in position while the market still favors you:
Check your pre-approval status. If it's older than 90 days, rates and terms may have shifted — a fresh pre-approval tells you exactly what you can offer and signals to sellers that you're serious.
Pull showing data for listings that have sat 30+ days. Those are the sellers most likely to concede. A 45- or 60-day stale listing is where a price cut or closing-cost credit becomes a real negotiating point.
Ask your agent for a comp sheet on the homes you like. Knowing what similar homes actually closed at — not just their asking prices — gives you the number to anchor a realistic offer.
Set a Q4 closing target. Closing before December 31 locks in this year's mortgage-interest deduction and the seller's year-end urgency, both of which this season's leverage depends on.
Inventory is back near pre-pandemic levels and foot traffic is down sharply — but both shift once rates ease. Every week you wait is a week closer to that 5.5-million-household wave of competition. Make the move now, while the window is still yours.
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