If you stepped back from house hunting in early October, I get it. Rates had just jumped, the headlines were loud, and taking a breath made sense. A month later, the picture looks different enough that it's worth a fresh look at your numbers. Not a rush. Just a real look.
What changed since October
On Mortgage News Daily's national index, the average 30-year fixed hit 7.61% in early October, its high for the past year. By Monday, November 9, it was 7.18%, a little over four-tenths of a point lower. FHA and VA averages were running lower than that.
Think of those as a snapshot, not a promise. Rates have been easing since mid-October, and Mortgage News Daily ties a lot of that to jittery tech stocks, which tends to send money into bonds. That can reverse quickly, and this week brings fresh inflation data that could move things either way. So I'm not telling you rates are headed lower. I'm telling you the math you ran in October is probably out of date.
The Valley market gave buyers more room, too
It's not just rates. AZ Big Media's October report on Metro Phoenix showed active listings up 6.8% from a year earlier, listings under contract down 13.5%, and the median sales price at $448,000, down 1.5%. The Cromford Market Index came in at 70.1. Anything under 100 means supply is outrunning demand, which is buyer territory.
In plain English, there are more homes to choose from and fewer buyers competing for them. That usually means more room to negotiate on price, repairs or seller credits. Every neighborhood and price range is different, so your agent's read on the specific homes you like still matters most.
Why your October numbers are stale
A lower rate changes more than your payment. It can change how much home fits your budget, which loan program pencils out best, and whether a buydown or seller credit is worth asking for. If you paused, a few things may also need a refresh:
Your pre-approval. Credit reports, pay stubs and bank statements all have shelf lives. If yours is a month or two old, we'll likely need updated documents before you write an offer.
Your loan program. The gap between FHA, VA and conventional shifts over time. The best fit in October isn't automatically the best fit now.
Your price range. A lower rate can shift the price range that fits your comfortable payment, and so can any change in your income, debts or savings since October.
How I'd restart, step by step
Send me your updated documents so I can refresh your pre-approval.
I'll rerun your numbers at today's pricing and show you the payment at a couple of price points, so you know where you're comfortable before you fall for a house.
I'll compare programs and lenders. I work with 300+ lenders, so I'm shopping your scenario instead of handing you one bank's menu.
We talk locking vs. floating once you're under contract. With inflation reports and Fed headlines on deck, I'd rather you have a plan than hope for the best.
My take
You don't need perfect timing. You need current numbers. If you put things on hold when rates spiked, a quick refresh will tell you whether now works for you or whether waiting still makes sense. Either answer is fine, as long as it's based on today and not last month.
Start at themcdteam.com, or just reach out, and let's rerun your numbers.
FAQ
How long is a pre-approval good for?
It depends on the loan program and the documents. Credit reports, pay stubs and bank statements each have time limits, so if you paused for a month or more, plan on sending updated documents.
Should I wait for rates to drop more?
Nobody can promise where rates go next. If a home and payment work for you today, waiting is a gamble in either direction. If they don't, we can set a target and keep watching together.
Is it really a buyer's market in Phoenix?
By the Cromford Market Index, yes. It read 70.1 in October, and under 100 favors buyers. That's a metro-wide measure, so your specific area could be tighter or softer.
Will refreshing my pre-approval hurt my credit?
A new credit check may be part of updating it. Mortgage inquiries made while you shop within a short window are generally treated as a single inquiry by common scoring models, and I'll tell you before we pull anything.
Rates mentioned are Mortgage News Daily national index averages of advertised rates as of the dates shown, shared as market commentary only. They're not a rate quote or an offer of credit, and an APR can't be calculated for an index average. Your actual rate, APR, payment and costs depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and program at the time you lock. This article is general information, not a loan offer or commitment. All loans are subject to credit approval and underwriting guidelines.
Michael McDermott, NMLS 184065 | NEXA Lending, NMLS 1660690 | AZBK 2006218 | Equal Housing Opportunity
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