The Phoenix housing market has shifted firmly onto the buyer's side this fall. Pending sales plunged 40.1% in September from a year earlier, more sellers are cutting prices, and builders are throwing in incentives to move inventory — all against a national backdrop of stubbornly high mortgage rates. Here's what's really driving the softening and how to use it, whether you're buying, selling, or advising clients.
I'm Michael McDermott, a 24-year Phoenix mortgage veteran with The McDermott Team. I'm going to be straight with you, because I think you'd rather hear it from me: the market has slowed down, fewer buyers are signing contracts, and builders are working harder for every sale. That's not doom and gloom. It's just where we are. And once you know what's actually going on, you can make a smarter move.
September's numbers from Phoenix REALTORS lay it out plainly. New contracts, or pending sales, fell 40.1% versus last September. Closed sales dipped 4.9%, and the median single-family price slipped 2.1%, from nearly $485,000 to $475,000. Inventory rose 6.7% to about 4.3 months of supply, up from 4.0 a year ago. Higher rates are the engine: with the top-tier 30-year fixed hovering near its 52-week high, buyers have stepped back and sellers are negotiating.
What the numbers say
The softenings is broad, not just one headline number. Start with the big picture from The Cromford Report: its Market Index for Greater Phoenix read 74.3 on October 7, and on Cromford's scale of 100 as balanced, anything under 100 tilts toward buyers. Demand sits at 76.2, well below normal, while supply is near normal at 102.5. In plain words, buyers haven't disappeared — there are just fewer of them, and they're pickier, which is why sellers are negotiating.
Price cuts are climbing alongside the supply shift. Last week the national figure was 20.8% of listings carrying a price cut in September; Realtor.com puts the Phoenix-area number at about 29%. And rates haven't helped — the top-tier 30-year fixed is sitting near its 52-week high of 7.61% this October, which pushes would-be buyers to wait.
But honest goes both ways. Year to date, closed sales are still up 2.9%, and homes that sold in September still got 98.1% of list price, unchanged from a year ago. Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst at The Cromford Report, describes home values as stable and says they may glide with less demand rather than drop. This is a cooling, not a crash.
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