Recap
Yesterday bonds were choppy on news that President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was over and military strikes would resume, but it led to very few lenders repricing one way or the other.
Mortgage bonds have lost about -50bps since Monday, with rates moving up .125 or even .250 for some lenders. Even worse when you look at where they are at from the end of June.
Rate outlook for today...
Rate sheets this morning likely similar to yesterday, as oil prices remain barely below $80 a barrel. Markets are much less concerned about military action than ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which for now has seen a reduction in traffic but isn't at a standstill like it was previously. If reports increase that Iran is able to stop traffic, and oil prices rise, expect rates to do the same. However, if anything happens that helps oil prices fall, we would see the improvements on rate sheets.
While it's ok to cautiously float to start the day, reprice risk is moderate and many loans will want to lock at the first sign of trouble or by day's end.
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