I realize there are many answers to real estate questions, and I value everyone's opinion. I'm sure many of those answers come from valuable research and facts. I try very hard to include that information, too.
But I want you to understand something. The best answers I can give you won't always come from statistics, although I'll share those with you as well.
You see, I'm not just answering these questions. I've lived a lot of them. I've watched them play out over more than 30 years in real estate.
And although I may change the names, my stories are real. The people who lived them with me are real, too.
My hope is that when you read my answers, you're not just getting facts and figures. You're getting something a little different. You're getting a living, breathing answer from someone who was actually there.
Question: Should I buy a cabin as an Airbnb in Gatlinburg, or has that ship already sailed?
I'm going to be honest with you. I'm not sure that ship ever came in. Lol.
Now hang with me, because I'm not trying to talk you out of anything. I love this county. Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville and Wears Valley are some of the most beautiful places God ever put mountains, and people keep coming to see them. The Great Smoky Mountains National Park had more than 11.5 million recreation visits in 2025, the most of any national park in the country, according to the National Park Service. Visitors spent about $3.9 billion in Sevier County in 2024, based on the state's tourism numbers. So the people are here. The question is whether your cabin makes money off of them.
My 50 percent opinion
Here's something I want you to chew on. In my opinion, I wouldn't be surprised if only about half the cabins purchased as investments in Sevier County actually break even after all their expenses. Now, that's not a statistic. That's just my opinion, based on what I've watched happen over 30 years. Nobody handed me a study, and I could be wrong. But it's what I believe.
Part of the reason is that we get a lot of bad numbers around here. Folks aren't always telling the whole truth about what a cabin makes. And part of it is how most people buy. A lot of folks come here looking for a cabin investment, but many of them aren't investing much of their own money. They're borrowing most of it. They finance it at a hundred percent, or as close as they can get, 80 percent even. Then they're depending on the cabin to pay for itself, and hoping that at the end of a few years, maybe five, it's gone up in value and they get their return through appreciation.
That's a lot of hoping. And borrowing isn't cheap right now. Freddie Mac had the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40 percent the week of October 15, 2026, and Bankrate shows investment property loans running a little higher than that.
A tale of two men with ten cabins
I know a man who owned about ten cabins here. They paid for themselves, and when the economy got really strong, he sold them and made a lot of money. That's a success story, and I'm happy to tell it. But I'm going to tell you something about him. That man was the businessman of the year in Louisiana, and he was quite a cagey Cajun. He wasn't just lucky. He was sharp.
Then there's my friend Gonzalez. He had ten cabins or so back in 2007, when the economy had been booming. He kept building, and he had several mortgages. Quite a savvy guy, too. But when you're financing cabins and the economy takes a tumble, rental income can fall right along with it. Cabins that had been renting for $500 a night were suddenly going for $200. Some were even offering deals like buy two nights and get one free. It's amazing what happens.
And Gonzalez wasn't the only one. The cabin building boom in the mid-2000s put a lot more cabins on the market than there were renters to fill them. One local agent wrote in early 2009 that about 40 percent of cabin sales in the Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge area were foreclosures or short sales. Even a Sevierville bank, Mountain National Bank, was eventually closed by regulators in 2013 after heavy real estate lending ran into falling values. Two men, ten cabins apiece, and two very different endings.
Why I worry a little right now
I don't think most people here reach that 10 percent return that a lot of investors really like to see. AirDNA, one of the big vacation rental data companies, says a 10 percent yield is a good return on a short-term rental. I just don't see that happening for most folks, especially with inflation running costs up the way it has.
Cabin rentals are down right now, too. AirDNA's own estimates for Gatlinburg show average nightly rates down about 4.5 percent from a year ago, at around $343 a night, with occupancy around 57 percent. And there are a lot of us now. The Mountain Press reported in 2025 that about 16,000 of the roughly 46,000 residential properties in Sevier County are taxed as commercial, which mostly means overnight rentals. Of the roughly 4,000 new buildings built over four years, about 2,200 were overnight rentals. That's a lot of cabins chasing the same family of four from Ohio.
Where I think the opportunity is
I don't want you to get the wrong idea. There are ways to buy cabins in Gatlinburg and put them on different kinds of rental programs, Airbnb included. If you do it on a small scale and you truly invest your own money, there's an opportunity to get a return. Just remember that with one cabin and your own money in it, you've got a lot tied up in one place, and you're depending on a lot of things going right.
If you have the money and you'd like a vacation spot for yourself, one that hopefully pays for itself, appreciates over time and gives you a little time in these mountains, that would be awesome. I think that's a wonderful reason to buy. But if you're looking to really size up, say ten cabins on Airbnb, just make sure you have that kind of capital. How much money can you put into each cabin? The return might be a percentage you could live with, but go in with your eyes open.
Do your homework like your money depends on it, because it does
The first thing I'd do is research. Don't take any one person's word on what a cabin makes, and that includes me. Call about three cabin rental companies, or four or five. Ask each one the same question. What's the worst case? What's the lowest a cabin like this will make in that area in a year? That low number is the one I'd work with if I were you. If the cabin still works for you even in a bad year, I think that's a much better way to find an Airbnb that will work for you.
And don't stop at what the cabin brings in. Ask what it costs to keep it running. Cleaning, management, repairs, insurance, utilities, property taxes, and that hot tub that always seems to need something. Lol. It's not what the cabin brings in that matters most. It's what you get to keep.
Find out which areas get the most traffic from people who want to rent cabins, and what amenities give a cabin an advantage. Pool cabins can do really, really well here, but they generally cost more. So does the income that cabin produces justify what you're paying for it? Then there's the upkeep, and there's always something going on with a pool. Lol.
You'd better find somebody who knows this area very, very well, too. One cabin can be allowed on a rental program, and the cabin right next door isn't allowed to rent at all. The codes and restrictions have changed over the years. Sevier County has required an annual permit and inspection for short-term rentals since January 1, 2024. Gatlinburg has its own tourist residence permit, and Pigeon Forge has its own rules. It can get a bit tricky, but that part is pretty easy to solve. A good local real estate agent can help you investigate those restrictions, but make sure you verify them with the appropriate city or county before you buy. The harder part is finding a cabin in a high-traffic area, at a reasonable price, with good amenities that will actually work as an Airbnb in Gatlinburg.
The bottom line
Jesus talked about this a long time ago. "For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down first, and counteth the cost, whether he have sufficient to finish it?" (Luke 14:28). That's still about the best real estate advice I know.
So seek guidance. Find professionals who can help you make the decision. Don't believe you're greater than the system here. Work your way in, try to understand it, and then make a good decision. The cagey Cajun was sharp, and he came out smiling. Gonzalez was a smart man, too, and the economy still caught him. The difference wasn't how much they loved the mountains.
Sometimes it's not how smart you are or how much money you think you can make. It's whether you've prepared yourself for what happens when things don't go quite the way you planned.
These mountains are beautiful, but they don't promise anybody a profit. Lol.
Hope that helps. God bless.
Will Cupp
Sevierville Realtor and Real Estate Broker, Realty Executives Associates, (865) 983-0011
865-654-9807
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